Allen Matkins Development Survey Nails It

John Tipton is an operating partner at Allen Matkins.

The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index is celebrating its 10-year anniversary. To commemorate the moment, Allen Matkins and UCLA Anderson produced a 10-year retrospective to look at the accuracy of the survey results. The survey, which analyzes developers’ three-year outlook of construction activity across asset classes, was highly accurate, showing a strong correlation between the survey results and actual building activity.

“This 10-year retrospective—as opposed to the semi-annual survey that looks three-years ahead—looks back at how predictive the survey was or wasn’t,” John Tipton, operating partner at Allen Matkins, tells GlobeSt.com. “Jerry Nickelsburg did that by looking at qualitative and quantitative results. He found that, with a few exceptions, the survey results predicted pretty accurately the new level of building activity three years out. He found it to be a good predictor. In the next decade, he has plans to refine the survey to further increase its predictiveness.”