My trip to Israel this week (for a speech to Israeli investors in U.S. real estate) reinforced the view that offshore investors see the U.S. as their only sure shot safe haven. Israelis generally have proved extremely savvy investors and the group of over 120 I met with had little interest in Europe—still viewed as a basket case economy—and apparently even less in China and other parts of Asia—not transparent enough.

At least initially the stock market skyed higher over Congress’s down-to-the-wire fiscal cliff vote, but really does raising taxes and putting off dealing with deficit cuts for another two months diminish uncertainty and discomfort about the future course of the U.S. economy? Reality needs to hit home.

Long before Newtown and the ongoing wave of mass shootings gripping the U.S., the fiction of safe suburbs versus dangerous cities had been upended. The urban white flight of the 1960 and 1970s stopped and even reversed in recent years as 24-hour cities appeared safe and secure, especially in upscale neighborhoods. Today young families may move out of cities back to suburbs, looking for better public schools, but today they rarely leave out of fear of violence or for a safer environment.

While our economist friends thought hiring activity would be much more vigorous than it was, they also predicted no way the unemployment rate would go down in the anticipated numbers—wrong again.

The economic numbers are almost beside the point aren’t they? If we are not technically back in recession, realistically we are. And we really haven’t been out of recession since the crash.

If real estate investors are counting on a private sector revival to stoke demand for space and bail them out of cash flow shortfalls they better think again. After a government stimulus prompted spurt, U.S. economic growth is now expected to ebb. The stock market is slumping again and European governments are going into austerity mode, and Congress resists further pump priming.

We all know about fundamentals and supply and demand. But the supply and demand that many real estate investors seem to focus on today is capital. They count on more capital to make things better. They hope if capital comes back into the markets we can start doing more deals again, prices would increase in the augmented trading, and the cycle would ramp up. Bad deals transacted near the last market peak might have a chance, if they could be bailed out by appreciation.

Leading appraisers I´ve talked to expect core institutional portfolios to register value gains averaging somewhere between 5% and 8% for the calendar year. Add in income returns, and these real estate funds should see "double digit" low to mid teens performance during 2010. Real estate is back......

So real estate markets are give-or-take at bottom, the worst is over, recovery is in the offing. Everybody should be feeling better, but why do so many of us take pause and register lack of confidence in a solid rebound. One of the best recent commentaries on where markets are headed was released last...

If you´re an investor and you´ve been waiting patiently, maybe nervously, for the market bottom of commercial real estate, we´re here. Well, give or take we´re here. For all that capital that we´ve heard about standing on the sidelines ready to jump in and buy bargains-you´re time is now....