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Retailers: The Red and some Black
The Sunday New York Times had a neat chart at the back of the Week in Review Section titled "Fall of the Mall." The headline was a bit misleading--the diagram was really about how much mall retailer sales have dropped over the past year (first quarter to first quarter).
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Dead
"If you're in (commercial) real estate you are either depressed or have nothing to do."
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Looking for signs
I want to see the green shoots, some hopeful signs that the economy is getting better. At this point the stock market is no better than a casino--nobody invests for the long-term anymore. It's all betting short-term. Recent run-ups don't express any enduring confidence, and the gains over the...
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Viva Las Vegas and ICSC
Attendance was down at ICSC-"back to normal" before the transaction mania of the last few years, according to one convention veteran. But Mike Kercheval, ICSC president and CEO, pointed out that the Monday lunch set a record-"maybe thatīs because itīs free," he told the 3,000 plus in the...
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See you in Las Vegas
If you're heading out to Las Vegas for the annual ICSC RECON meeting, I'll be speaking on Monday afternoon 2:30-4 pm, headlining the session New Realities=New Trends. I plan to highlight the ten trends I think will change how we live, work and shop in America over the next generation. In addition,...
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Aging more rapidly
We've been anticipating for the last decade or more how the United States population will be aging. I remember back in the mid 1990s when investment advisors were all getting on the bandwagon to develop or acquire senior residences and adult communities. There was a bit of a building binge and developers...
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The real costs of T-I allowances
A sinking American office market raises questions about the impact and value of tenant improvement allowances to owners and investors. In a note to me, a veteran portfolio manager suggests shifting the T-I burden to tenants--the industry practice in most other world markets. He argues that would reduce...
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Living standards ebb
Swine (sorry pork producers) flu may be abating at least for now, the stress tests don't break bankers into too much of a sweat, and the car companies will survive, if barely (did we have any doubts?). A few U.S. companies scramble to make solar panels but we ceded most of that product's manufacturing...
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NYC:Down But Far From Out
New York is the world financial capital, the epicenter of global financial problems, and financial companies will shrink in size. So New York's prospects are poor relative to other markets. We've all heard that line of reasoning. A real estate consultant was throwing the New York demise scenario...
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What happened to the cushion?
Remember the one about all the "dry powder" opportunity capital poised on the sidelines to "cushion" any market fall? That was a favorite line from the industry savvy back in 2006 and 2007. The only problem was those same people were still investing, using ample leverage and spinning...
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