Chief Economist
Athens is Burning
The Greek parliament passed wide-ranging austerity measures on Sunday, paving the way for Eurozone finance ministers to approve the latest rescue package on Wednesday. An important step, it leaves the sovereign debt crisis' underlying drivers unresolved. FULL STORY
Q4'11 GDP Estimate Not as Good as it Seems
At the conclusion of a disappointing year, the expansion of the US economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2011. But the headline result reflects a large contribution from private sector inventory buildup that will not carry forward into 2012. FULL STORY
Where the Jobs Are
Data on job openings suggest that the market's upside can be found in generally lower-paying occupations, which support smaller increases in discretionary spending, and in areas that exhibit a weaker relationship with office demand. FULL STORY
Unimpeded by Legacy Distress, Healthier Banks Making CRE Loans
The default rate on banks' multifamily and commercial real estate loans fell to 3.75 percent in the third quarter. While net CRE lending is still falling, the bank-by-bank analysis shows that institutions with stronger balance sheets are the first to reengage with borrowers. FULL STORY
Devil in the Details of November's Disappointing Employment Report
The decline in the unemployment rate reflects the large number of Americans who exited the workforce in November and not an abrupt acceleration of net hiring. Private sector job creation fell short of the 2011 trend rate, with office-using employment remaining an clear point of weakness. FULL STORY
Long-Term Outlook for Agency Financing Remains an Open Question
Although the apartment market benefits enormously from access to low-cost agency financing, the GSEs' broader third quarter results reinforce that this arrangement is unlikely to persist indefinitely. FULL STORY
The October Jobs Report
Last Friday's employment report offered little evidence that firms are poised to accelerate the pace of hiring. Particularly in sectors related to demand for office space, payroll gains remain frustratingly slow, once again qualifying the near-term outlook for property fundamentals. FULL STORY
Signs of Inflation
Even as measures of economic growth have slowed, inflationary pressures have been rising in the United States. If core inflation accelerates before occupancy rates rise, real estate's traditional inflation hedge will prove less effective in lagging markets. At the same time, the requisite tightening of monetary policy implies higher refinancing costs than prevail in today's commercial real estate market. FULL STORY
Details of September Jobs Report Disappoint
Last Friday’s employment report surpassed economists’ baseline expectations but still fell woefully short in bolstering confidence that we are on the cusp of a more robust jobs recovery. For investors in the office sector, the frustrating pace of improvement in professional employment contrasts with sustained price improvements for core assets. FULL STORY
Nothing for CRE in Operation Twist
Whether Operation Twist will push rates any lower, and whether marginally lower rates matter for the economic outlook, are questions for debate. In fact, the Fed's latest action is unlikely to offset any of the economy's most serious headwinds. FULL STORY
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