For a Good Time, Call 212 . . .

By John Salustri

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First, as I’ve said before, no one has a clue about what this year will bring. The best you’re gonna get are guesses.  Some will be good, some bad, but guesses all, nevertheless.

So, here’s how I think 2012 will roll out. If you disagree, would love to hear from you.

New York and the major markets will continue to enjoy the kind of year most of 2011 proved to be on both the leasing and acquisition front. There was near-to giddiness about the market expressed in the various holiday parties we attended, and I wasn’t even standing near the bar. But the Albequerques of the world will just continue to bump along the bottom, waiting for a brighter jobs picture or at least some rogue investor willing to go where the crowd ain’t and shake up the market.

The jobs picture will continue to creep out of its hole, taking two steps ahead and one step back throughout the year. Remember there’s no census this year and the holiday season is 11 months away, so there won’t be any falsely inflated numbers to lull us into a sense of rapid recovery.

Investments generally will continue their upward trajectory, increasing by as much as 20%, according to Thought Leader Hessam Nadji.  But the name of the game here will be equity. Finding a lender will still be the same game of hide and seek it was last year, and prospective borrowers will need to come to the table with a solid asset in mind, a sure fire game plan and a wad of skin-in-the-game capital. (BTW, reports of the death of CMBS have been premature. It will emerge, different sure, but it will emerge. 

You’re going to see more M&A activity this year as the winners of the recent economic unpleasantness survey the battlefield for weaker prey. You’re already seeing it with the Archstone tug of war and the likes of C-III.  The George Steinbrenner of CRE, Andrew Farkas, is back in the game with the buy-and-build strategy that already created one league powerhouse. Don’t bet against him repeating that success.

Overall it will be a year of slow improvement for the market, one in which we as an industry will do better than the overall economy. Our frustrations will be focused outwardly—on the madhouse inside the Beltway and the economic confusion taking place on the global stage—and the as yet unseen impact either of these could have. 

But these are just guesses. What are yours?

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