The Boomer Battle

By Sule Aygoren Carranza

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You’ve all probably seen the numbers by now. The two big Boomer generations that bracket our working population also exert the greatest influence on all aspects of our society.

On one end, you have 79 million Baby Boomers, the first of which started to turn 65 this year. In fact, the Pew Research Center reports that for the next 19 years, 10,000 Baby Boomers will celebrate their 65th birthday every day.

Let me repeat: 10,000 US citizens will turn 65 daily. Every. Single. Day. For the next two decades.

By the time they all reach that milestone, nearly 20% of the US population will be above what’s typically considered retirement age. That’s one in five people, people.

Baby Boomers account for a large chunk of the working population, and the fact that they happen to hit retirement age doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll retire. These days, corporate offices are more likely to house older Boomers than Millennials. Whether they want to, or find themselves forced to—by shrinking pension plans, declining home equity, inadequate nest eggs or hits their 401K plans took in the last stock market crash—they’ll probably continue to work, at least part time.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the working population as a whole is growing older. Workers aged 16 to 24 account for just 14% of the overall labor force—the lowest figure since 1948. The BLS also forecasts that nearly 93% of the growth in the US labor force between 2006 and 2016 will be among workers aged 55 and older, with this segment accounting for 22.7% of all workers by 2016. At the same time, the other major age groups are expected to decrease.

At the same time, Baby Boomers will also be eligible for government benefits. I’m not a numbers person, but it doesn’t take an economist to see the implications there. But here are some numbers anyway, courtesy of the Congressional Budget Office: In 2010, the Social Security system paid out more than it received in payroll taxes—an event that wasn’t expected until 2016. Sixty years ago, taxes obtained from 16 US workers paid each retired person’s SS benefits. Last year, 3.3 workers paid for each SS recipient. By 2025, government projections have two workers paying for each SS beneficiary.

Adding to this a longer life expectancy. Better medical care has allowed people to live longer, but hasn’t erased medical problems associated with getting older. Each person that turns 65 is one more person that will be eligible for Medicare, which is already facing budget shortfalls in the trillions. Doubling the number of Medicare recipients will surely pressure an already taxes system to its breaking point.

Baby Boomers have influenced just about every aspect of our country, from government to education to pop culture trends, for the past half century, at least. And now that they’re living longer and working longer, they will continue to be a formidable force.

On the other end of the demographic spectrum lie the boomers of another variety: Echo Boomers. Also numbering around 80 million, they account for about a third of the total US population. Born between 1981 and 1995, the first wave of this group recently entered the job market. And all you have to do is glance at your surroundings to see that Echo Boomers have already made their mark on our culture—everything from television and music to technology and marketing revolves around this younger cohort. They are, as many say, the generation that will change the world.

But this is also the generation that’s having a harder time finding jobs, especially given the combination of a tough economy and a more crowded labor market. They’re the ones that are extending young adulthood by choosing to stay in school longer, or live with their parents well into their twenties. They’re the ones who are putting off careers to travel or volunteer.

Whether by choice or necessity, the Echo Boomers aren’t making the waves their parents did-at least, not yet.

We’re already seeing commercial real estate respond to the expected growth of both Boomer groups. Just look, for instance, at all the people investing in medical office product, or the changes the apartment sector is seeing in terms of design or customer service. It will be interesting, though, to see how much of an impact both groups will have on society as a whole—from culture to business to the financial markets—once their numbers really start growing.

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