About the Author

Sule Aygoren

Sule Aygoren is the New York City-based Editor-in-Chief for ALM's Real Estate Media Group, overseeing Real Estate Forum magazine and the online publication, GlobeSt.com. She has been reporting on business, finance and commercial real estate since 2001, with a particular emphasis on all areas of multifamily housing. Sule has received numerous awards for her coverage of the industry, including first-place for Best Trade Magazine Report and runner-up for the James D. Carper Award for Best Entry by a Young Journalist. Under her direction, Real Estate Forum has also received four national NAREE awards for best trade magazine for commercial real estate. She is a frequent moderator and speaker at industry events, including the RealShare Conference Series, and media-related panels.

†A cum laude graduate with a B.A. in Media & Society and English/Creative Writing from Hobart & William Smith Colleges,†Sule currently lives in Long Island with†her family.

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Pretty simple formula, no demand = no financing; no financing = no starts.

Developers with deals coming on line today probably wish they'd never broken ground.

The few existing projects that are trading are selling at well below replacement cost which makes appraising a new deal even more of a challenge.

The few new projects going forward must be in very unique markets to attract development debt and even then, the take-out cap rates and permanent finance markets are very, very cloudy.

The new, tough agency rules on financing condo sales will push even more of those units over into the rental pool.

With renters out of work, they're doubling up or moving back in with mom and pop. There's a supply glut that will take real growth in employment to get back in line with demand and see any improvement in occupancies and rent- but there's no real expectation of a big employment pick-up in any credible forecast we're seeing. Could be a long cold winter in the sector.

Still, it's better than the retail market. Ugh!
Posted by comment_user_450595 | Wednesday, December 09 2009 at 6:02PM ET
The apartment builders are out there but the job situation needs to change and then construction financing needs to exist. Right now even if job creation levels stay at zero the demand is low, and even if demand is turns up, it is virtually impossible to get construction financing. Hopefully, when jobs creation starts, construction financing will become available. Until then, we will stay hunkered down. A lot of our clients are focused on distressed assets but there is too much demand and not enough supply for those deals, and they don't create jobs, so they are not going to help the economy.
Posted by comment_user_451210 | Wednesday, December 09 2009 at 6:14PM ET
From the viewpoint of a multifamily investor/developer, much of what the industry is suffering from is disillusionment.

We close our deals "all cash," and at the start of the crisis we were expecting all of those fabled distressed assets to surface - we're still waiting. The Government has apparently decided to allow toxic lenders to keep their heads above water, instead of allowing these failures to be washed away by the Recession so that new, healthy growth can occur.

I'm not convinced that this Recession is over. I'm actually expecting it to get worse. The brief improvements in unemployment due to the Christmas season and the comical "increase" in GDP are most certainly not the much sought "green shoots" we need - escpecially when U6 unemployment still stands at 17.2%. I only hope that the Government can come through with job creation as I see no other way out of this mess.

So we're watching and waiting. My principal sees no need to seriously pursue development and we continue to pursue the distressed assets that trickle into the market.
Posted by comment_user_450960 | Thursday, December 10 2009 at 1:58PM ET