A Necessary Evil
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The year-end data are in, and it turns out the CMBS market isn’t improving, after all. In fact, the delinquency rate hit its all-time high in December, 9.2%, according to a report on GlobeSt.com late last week. And the outlook isn’t any brighter, with a number of significant loans currently in special servicing.
And in an interesting turn of events, it’s multifamily that’s seeing the worst of it. At 16.48%, the sector had the highest delinquency rate of all other property types, usurping the top spot from hotels. Even more, delinquency for multifamily loans is getting worse, while the rate for hotels is actually improving.
While that’s certainly not good news for the apartment market, it could signal a potential opportunity for investors. At some point, something has to be done about those loans, and given the magnitude, it’s not likely that all of them will be worked out. That means at least a percentage of them will end up on the market as lenders and special servicers try to unload them. And the higher the number of defaults, the greater that percentage will probably be.
For those investors who have been waiting to snap up multifamily assets at discounts, the next couple of years may be prime for the reaping. If that happens, expect to see distressed deal volume finally pick up pace.
(To search across all ALM blogs, go to www.Lexis.com.)
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