Expectations for 2011 New York ICSC
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In preparation for the 2011 New York ICSC conference, here is a list of several issues we think will be at the forefront of discussion:
- Urban Retail and other infill redevelopment projects. No more "path of progression" type developments. If the population and demographics aren't there today, then they simply won't consider the deal (they being developers and retailers).
- Will Europe and other macro-economic issues stall the recovery in the economy, or will the United States continue to slowly move in a positive direction?
- In the single tenant world - who is expanding? Drug stores don't have a pipeline at all, banks are active in specific geographic markets opened up by acquisitions during the tumultuous years of 08-10, but who else? Big boxes remain stagnant, but when will they begin serious progress on planning and opening new stores? Is this the new norm or are we still recovering?
- What is the outlook for financing non-investment grade credit transactions? What is going on in the CMBS arena?
- What is the investment prognosis for secondary and tertiary markets?
- What impact will maturing loans have upon the investment sale in 2012?
- What is happening with interest rates going forward, inflation, and loan maturities i.e. banks kicking the can down the road or clearing inventory?
- What direction will the FASB 13-Lease accounting take?
- Consolidation & bankruptcy's- impact on NNN investments. Will Rite Aid be sold or file?Borders- who is absorbing their buildings? Other potential Chapter 11/7 prospects?
- Growth sectors. Seems like the Dollar stores have been one of the few tenants who are expanding? Who else??
- Cap rate trends. It often seems like we are at 2007 levels on cap rate compression - where are cap rates heading/why?
- Casual dine restaurants have taken a beating during the Great recession. Any growth prospects out there or will 2012 see more carnage?
Happy Thanksgiving!
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