Trend Czar
Unvarnished truth. Consultant Jonathan Miller (Miller-Ryan) has compelling views on the market, and he shares them with GlobeSt.com subscribers twice weekly.
Las Vegas’s Worst Nightmare
As noted last week, now it’ s New York glomming on Las Vegas’s business with talk of a casino-convention complex near JFK Airport. Once lotteries were a ready gambit employed by states to raise revenues—all those dollar entries for Powerball can add up. But now more places go all in, defaulting to unadulterated gambling as a way to generate some jobs-any jobs and create tax base—any tax base. FULL STORY
Las Vegas’s Worst Nightmare
As noted last week, now it’ s New York glomming on Las Vegas’s business with talk of a casino-convention complex near JFK Airport. Once lotteries were a ready gambit employed by states to raise revenues—all those dollar entries for Powerball can add up. But now more places go all in, defaulting to unadulterated gambling as a way to generate some jobs-any jobs and create tax base—any tax base. FULL STORY
In the New Year’s News
Last week’s jobs numbers really are more of the same—slow improvement, but not enough to help boost occupancies and increase rents dramatically. Mall vacancies, for example, are still near record highs and office occupancies inch ahead barely—suburban markets remain particularly weak. FULL STORY
Setting Apartments Up For a Fall
Tepid. Anemic. Lethargic. Slower than we’d like. That was the commercial real estate market story for 2011, and it looks like more of the same for the New Year as well as the foreseeable future. Vacancy rates will get better, but remain uncomfortably above equilibrium. Rents won’t increase substantially, and deal making will be relatively subdued even in the top markets. FULL STORY
Buyers’ Remorse
I have to confess—I don’t do Christmas shopping. When I tell people that I get odd responses—a mix of envy, maybe a touch of pity, and a dose of wonderment. Of course, a chunk of the population doesn’t celebrate Christmas—sure I buy the occasional present when going to a celebrant’s home or for Secret Santa in the office, stuff like that. But generally I avoid most of the frenzy and certainly the stress. FULL STORY
Musings Along I-55 from Memphis to St. Louis
Last week I was in Memphis and St. Louis—two so- called “secondary markets” not getting much if any attention from institutional real estate investors. Secondary markets are low growth and too risky. “What’s the upside and where is the exit?” ask lenders and equity dealmakers. FULL STORY
Trying to Buy More Time
Central bankers provide liquidity to ailing European banks and the stock market spikes off computer trading models. But some extra liquidity really only buys time (and maybe not much) in a world where governments are uniformly underwater and financial institutions inevitably must write down boat loads of bad assets, including real estate. FULL STORY
The Not So Emerging Trends
So where should we look to invest in 2012? The 24-hour gateways appear “priced to disappoint” after a round of cap rate compression not supported by leasing demand. Secondary and tertiary markets seem like risky bets—they’ve stabilized, but show lackluster signs of rebounding with tepid jobs growth prospects in most places—except for a handful of university-government towns like Austin and Raleigh. FULL STORY
Not the Burbs
Last week I was reviewing Emerging Trends findings with a group of executives at a major public pension plan sponsor. My talk centered on how they needed to reduce performance expectations in the wake of the increasingly obvious dearth of high returning opportunities in the real estate marketplace. Sure, clever investors can and will make scores on one-off deals and development projects. But the likelihood of nailing consistent 10 to 15 percent let alone 20 percent or greater annualized returns on transactions is highly problematic given the ongoing lack of tenant demand. FULL STORY
Canada’s Lesson
Traveling through Canada this week for various Emerging Trends events, it’s striking the differences in the condition of the financial and real estate markets between this culturally conservative nation and the United States. While the U.S. continues to stagger through unremitting doldrums, Canada has been an island in the storm of global economic meltdown. FULL STORY
Advertisement
Industry Blogs
News and views from CoreNet Global Summits in the Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific, brought to you by Jones Lang LaSalle attendees and speakers at the conferences. more
The Commercial Tenant Resource is focused on commercial
space users across the United States. Our goal is to highlight important
issues in commercial real estate to those responsible for their own
company's portfolio. We will arm you with leverage and ideas from the
tenant's perspective. more
Submitted by: Ken Ashley
Creating wealth in commercial real estate requires an exceptional understanding of both micro and macro determinants of real estate values. This blog titled "Dirt Experience meets Wall Street" provides fresh, intelligent, and sometimes cynical insights on buying buildings in today's market. more
Submitted by: Dan Pryor
Engaging stories, sometimes rants, about financial matters
including real estate, banking, regulation, and trues stories (with names
changed to protect the gulity). Author is a cross between Dr. Phil and Dr.
House. more
Submitted by: Bob Greenfest
John Kobierowski, a twenty year veteran of the multifamily business explores the in and outs of the apartment market in Phoenix. Follow me as we explore the market, the myths, current events and the backstories of the business. more
Registered members now have the ability to post links to their industry-related blog — a valuable marketing opportunity not available on other sites. Start the conversation today. more
