The US Pulls Ahead In a Slow Race

By Paul Bubny

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Heading into 2012, the US seems less caught up in global economic uncertainty than decoupling from it, at least temporarily. “The US will outpace Europe in the coming year, and by more than most people expect,” says Richard Mack, North America CEO of AREA Property Partners in New York City, although he adds that is this is “due more to European weakness than US strength.” Asieh Mansour, CBRE’s San Francisco-based head of Americas research, puts it a little differently: “The US fundamentally will avoid a recession. Many of the fundamentals of the US economy are much better, in comparison to Europe.”

Yet this may not last. Although some key US economic indicators have been trending upward for months, with a slightly steeper climb in the fourth quarter, the footing is still shaky. Mack terms China’s near-term economic outlook “the big unknown,” and Mansour cites that Asian powerhouse and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis as the two major risk areas in terms of the global economy.

All signs point to another year of slow growth in commercial real estate fundamentals, domestically and worldwide, but also one ripe with investment possibilities for sharp-eyed buyers. “If the Euro zone area goes through a much sharper meltdown than what we’re currently projecting, that can really harm growth globally, through the trade and capital financial markets channels,” Mansour says. At the same time, she says, “If China goes through a harder landing than what global investors are expecting, it means much weaker growth and possibly a global recession” in 2012…

…For the rest of the story, visit the January 2012 issue of Real Estate Forum.

Categories: International