A Discipline Escapes Purgatory

By Jennifer LeClaire

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Purgatory. It may be the best word to describe the commercial real estate world in 2009. Sellers weren’t selling. Buyers weren’t buying. Lenders weren’t lending. And fear prevailed.

All that led to a defensive property management strategy. But the tide is turning in 2012. Indeed, there is more clarity in the market. Trend lines are visible. And commercial real estate professionals are better equipped to manage what’s coming down the pike. The result is that asset management has become more forward thinking and proactive than fearful or defensive.

So the questions are, what is coming down the pike and what is the best response? How should opportunities in broken projects and debt be managed in 2012 compared to 2009? Where are the opportunities and what challenges remain to get the best return on eventual resales?

Despite the progress in clearing distressed assets off the books, there are still more questions than answers as 2012 unfolds. The good news, though, is there are more answers than in years past and wary optimism has replaced fearful skepticism, even with about $100 billion worth of CMBS loans coming due over the next 12 months.

“We’ve made a lot of progress over the past 24 months, but that doesn’t speak to what’s ahead of us,” says Ezra Katz, CEO and founder of the Aztec Group, a Miami-based investment and merchant banker specializing in the real estate industry. “It’s much more difficult to quantify what’s ahead. The good news is a lot of the uncertainty has been eliminated and that should give rise to more transactions, loan sales and workouts in 2012. It has to be vibrant, because if it isn’t, that portends something more ominous” than most industry members foresee…

…For the rest of the story, visit the January 2012 issue of Real Estate Forum.

Categories: Acquisitions/Dispositions, Capital Markets, Distressed Asset Investments, National