The majority of mortgage-related business in the county today is driven by refi’s that will hit their own inevitable ‘fiscal cliff’ says Ingham.

ORANGE COUNTY, CA-Based upon current tenant activity, we anticipate accelerated employment growth in the sectors of healthcare providers, health insurance companies, medical device manufacturers, and mortgage-related businesses. So says Jeff Ingham, senior managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle.

Ingham recently chatted with GlobeSt.com about a recent report on the County’s Economic Overview of Employment, compiled by research analyst Bryce Mordoff. Ingham pointed out that “given the fact that companies typically lease space in advance of bringing new employees on board, employment reporting from the Economic Development Department tends to lag trends in office tenant activity by six to 12 months.”

Additionally, he says, “mortgage-related business growth will be set to an unspecified and potentially short-lived life cycle. Because interest rates are at historic lows, an increase is unavoidable.”

The only question, he says is “when and how fast?” The majority of mortgage-related business in the county today is driven by refi’s that will hit their own inevitable “fiscal cliff,” he explains. “When this occurs, hiring will freeze, and it is likely that layoffs will fast ensue.”
Post-election decisions are being made, and while Ingham says the outcomes are preliminary, he says there will be both winners and losers with regard to employment. “Examples of trends we see include reductions in the defense industry and in the financial sector (excluding mortgage). Simultaneously, we are seeing positive trends of growth in healthcare and clean tech, which are both anticipated to benefit from governmental support.”

**Graph Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, State of California Employment Development Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics