Peter Muoio Muoio: “These results likely reflect the beginning of normalization in terms of deal flow composition, since pricing is at an all-time high and the gains in fundamentals are cooling as vacancies plateau and rent growth moderates.”

IRVINE, CA—Multifamily deal volume did fall more in the first quarter than other property segments, but Ten-X’s chief economist Peter Muoio wouldn’t describe investors as shying away from the sector, he tells GlobeSt.com. According to a recent capital-trends report from the firm, the apartment sector posted a steep decline of 600 bps from the prior quarter, though the sector continues to make up an outsized portion of deals. We spoke with Muoio about investor attitudes toward the multifamily sector, what the decline indicates about their strategies and which sectors are looking up.

GlobeSt.com: Are investors shying away from this sector? 

Muoio: Multifamily deal volume did fall more in the first quarter than other property segments, since it declined nearly 43% compared to 29% for overall CRE, but I wouldn’t describe investors as shying away from the sector. Apartment has had very strong fundamentals this cycle, especially compared to other CRE sectors, and this has made it a very hot investment/trade. Consequently, deal volume has measured well above its historical proportion of overall CRE deal volume throughout the cycle, and despite the outsized dip in the first quarter, this trend remains in place. These results likely reflect the beginning of normalization in terms of deal flow composition, since pricing is at an all-time high and the gains in fundamentals are cooling as vacancies plateau and rent growth moderates.

GlobeSt.com: What does the sharp decline indicate about investor preferences, strategies and concerns? 

Muoio: The sharp decline likely reflects the velocity with which rates rose in the fourth quarter. The rapid change altered the pricing environment at a pace such that some deals did not make sense at initially agreed-upon pricing, and many deals could not be adjusted. Financing costs also increased, leading to changes in pricing to reflect higher borrowing costs. There also appears to be a split among investors over where we are in the cycle. Some investors’ economic base case is for continued expansion, making pricing at cyclical highs justified, while others are beginning to question the lifespan of this cycle and are adjusting their pricing to reflect this.

GlobeSt.com: Which sectors are predicted to gain shares of total sales volume in the coming months? 

Muoio: It is very hard to predict the ebbs and flows of what deals will close and come to market in the coming months. The trend we are most focused on, though, is, given e-commerce’s growth and the vulnerable nature of the retail sector, how much distressed space will come to market, and at what sort of pricing will it trade?

GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers take away from this report?

Muoio: A big takeaway is that while the rise in rates slowed deal flow, pricing has continued to chug higher, as measured by the Ten-X Nowcast and other indices, though the pace has slowed somewhat. Cap-rate spreads compressed to offset the rise in rates, keeping pricing up, but in all sectors except hotel, spreads are below their historical averages, with apartment cap rate spreads well below. This leaves us wondering how much further spreads can compress before pricing begins to slow or even fall in response to further Fed tightening.