NEWPORT BEACH, CA—Locally based Green Street Advisors has launched Real Estate Analytics, a new product line of value-add research focused on the private commercial real estate markets that includes data and analytics at the macroeconomic, property-sector and market level for the apartment, industrial, retail and office sectors. The research reveals some startling statistics about retail real estate.
The 2013 US Mall Outlook is one of the new line’s first reports. In it, Green Street reviews the major changes that are occurring in US retail real estate due to the growth in e-commerce. The firm estimates that 15% of currently operating malls in the US will either be fully or partially repurposed into something other than retail or closed in the next 10 years—this is up from a 10% estimate several years ago. The nation’s strongest malls will continue to gain market share, while weaker malls are at risk. Additionally, Green Street estimates that online shopping is stealing more than 100 basis points per year of sales growth from brick-and-mortar stores.
As part of the launch, the firm also published in-depth apartment and office outlooks and 10 snapshot reports; strip-center and industrial outlooks are to come.
“As a result of spending more than 25 years studying public REITs, we find we have a wealth of data and insight that is pertinent to the private market,” says Mike Kirby, Green Street’s director of research. “Our aim with Real Estate Analytics is to leverage off this research intelligence and produce conclusion-driven reports to help all real estate investors, not just those who invest in publicly traded securities, make the best possible investment decisions.”
E-commerce’s impact on real estate is not all negative. In fact, in some cases, as GlobeSt.com recently reported in an interview with Kelly Reenders, economic development agency administrator for the County of San Bernardino, Reenders said the Inland Empire area in particular is seeing a major positive impact from e-commerce. “While retail is experiencing changes to their traditional brick-and-mortar operations due to e-commerce, the service and delivery model to support e-commerce is changing industrial building demand, transportation options and logistics and inventory systems. That’s why the County is investing in its transportation infrastructure, to support this ongoing demand. It’s also why firms such as Amazon are investing so heavily in new buildings and adding workforce.”