Jonathan D. Miller Jonathan D. Miller

NEW YORK CITY—Despite the happy talk around deregulation and tax cuts boosting the stock market, real estate investors have been growing nervous about recent double-digit annualized returns falling into single digits, receding offshore capital, and the end to cap rate compression with interest rates headed higher.

On the ground evidence is a bit disconcerting. First there is the softness in the overbuilt luxury apartment sector with more projects still under construction—rents already go sideways in the prime 24-hour markets and luxury condos have become a much harder sell. High street retail vacancies signal tenants are no longer willing to pay up for loss-leader branding billboards as e-commerce makes further inroads even on upscale goods. Mall owners grapple with the on-going decline of department stores—they try to fill empty anchors with food concepts in direct competition with strip retail anchored by supermarkets, which leads to the obvious conclusion that there is just too much retail space in the face of sinking growth in demand.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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