Jonathan D. Miller Jonathan D. Miller

We are not talking manageable erosion anymore—it’s become clear now that the bricks and mortar retail world is in full-scale retreat. The new concepts are no longer in store, they are online, and real estate owners better wake up fast.

As we have commented before, compared to the rest of the world, the US has been grossly over-retailed with store space for decades. Developers morphed product from downtowns to suburban malls, then into Big Box formats, and leisure centers, complementing an array of grocery-anchored strips stretching along thoroughfares in every direction. There was always some new store concept to attract shopper traffic, even when urban retail in older cities and then outlier regional shopping centers failed. Conspicuous consumption and easy credit fueled a splurge in retail spending until the 2008 banking crisis exposed an unsustainable spendthrift culture. Now in the new Era of Less, the US may be near full employment, but jobs pay less and many Americans live without an adequate safety net—little or no savings and the specter of reduced government benefits and higher healthcare costs.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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