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The End of US Urban Renaissance

Why would the President and Republican leaders want to torpedo the prospects of the most important economic engines in the country—our gateway cities?…

Jonathan D. Miller

Why would the President and Republican leaders want to torpedo the prospects of the most important economic engines in the country—our gateway cities? But that’s what their “tax reform” could do. And real estate owners and investors can only hope all the personal goodies they will be getting in pass-throughs, depreciation and various other writeoffs will offset the potential damage to the economies of the nation’s most important urban centers.

Severely limiting state, local and property tax deductions in these higher cost places (New York, Washington DC, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Seattle among them) will increase, not decrease, tax payouts for many residents, crimp affordability further and pressure state and local governments into cutbacks they can ill afford. Raising already high taxes when they cannot be deducted on federal returns will be unpalatable for many local pols. Basic services—police, fire, sanitation—could be impacted. School districts will suffer and infrastructure spending may be curtailed just when the Congress will be pushing more spending burdens onto the states, given the deficits that the tax cuts will be ramping up at the federal level. Mass transit systems, key roadways, bridges and tunnels in these cities require major overhauls to keep commerce functioning—where is the money to come from?

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Jonathan D. Miller

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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