Houston: We May No Longer Have a Problem

Thomas Burns says there may be value in Houston for the patient investor.

HOUSTON—Is the recognized “energy capital of the world” a good bet for multifamily? On one hand, CoStar reports overall vacancy increased by 1.7% during the past 12 months and rent growth has declined by 1.5% during that same period. There has been a glut of four and five star deliveries since 2010: 17,000 units were delivered in 2016 and 20,000 units are in the pipeline for 2017.

This has led to negative rent growth and the return of concessions in some submarkets, says Thomas Burns, principal of RNB Capital Partners. One key driver of this decline is job loss in the energy sector. Job growth in the fourth quarter 2016 had slowed to a meager 0.2%, which is a far cry from 4% several years before. The other primary driver has been oversupply in certain submarkets.