There were some surprised looks at the announcement. Admittedly, it was just a blip at 23,420 sf. It also was the lowest of the positive recordings in the nine-year comparison. As a new year kicks off, the bitter facts are concessions are up, rent is down and the 2003 forecast is lukewarm, the team essentially said at yesterday's recap and preview. And that wasn't very surprising to those familiar with the landscape of the 159.6-million-sf office inventory.
The CBD vacancy closed the year at 28.2% in comparison to 2001's 27.9%. The suburban vacancy spiked 4.4% in the past year, ending Q4 with a 24.6% reading. The bottom line is 2003 will be another year with tenants in the driver's seats, said Elizabeth C. Trocchio, C&W's senior managing director and area leader.
The 40 million sf is "unprecedented," said Daryl A. Mullin, senior director. Of the available space, seven million sf is sublease and 5.8 million sf of that is vacant, he reported.
With that kind of space glut, tenants definitely are trading up for better deals, nicer offices and more amenities for their dollars. As it now stands, 32% of the 40 million sf is class C, 27% is class B and 21%, class A, Cynthia G. Jeter, director and senior manager-Texas for research services, tells GlobeSt.com.
The sticker price or quoted rate is down 5% from last year and cash concessions are relatively commonplace. "We're not seeing as much free rent in the suburbs as we are in the CBD...but the average rates at the end of the day are similar to the downtown," Mullin told the media at the press conference held at C&W's Dallas headquarters.
There will be some CBD deal making, said a confident Lawrence Gardner, associate director who's not tossing in the towel on his in-town territory. There will be the usual renewals, a spattering of expansions and with some luck, some newcomers from a couple suburbanites now shopping downtown high-rises.
In the industrial sector, vacancy is holding in the 13% to 16% range, with the average standing at 13.1% for about 349.3 million sf of product. It was 11.3% in Q4 2001. This year is going to be "fairly active," predicted Jean F. Russo, director of industrial properties. Once again, the hot pockets to watch will be Coppell, the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport area and Ross Perot Jr.'s AllianceTexas.
Office investment transactions were "way down," said Jack Fraker, executive vice president. There were a few high-profile sales that closed at top dollar to push up the volume, but the number of office building sales were down by about half, he told GlobeSt.com. This year will be different. He believes trades--office and industrial--are poised to rise because pension funds have capital that must be spent. The DFW's long-term fundamentals, as in the past, will deliver the dollars from the deep-pocketed spenders. Trading most likely will start out slow, but Fraker says it's not likely to stay that way.
Taking the "gold" for 2002 was the multifamily arena, which set a 16-year sales record by the trading of 140 properties, with 200 units or more, valued at $1.5 billion, said Will Balthrope, director of the newly formed multi-housing group. Another $800,000 to $1 billion in assets are on the DFW market today, he said.
Last year, the hot properties were class B; this year, watch for it to be class A, Balthrope said. But also watch for prices to stabilize instead of continuing to spike. In the past year, the per unit price jumped about $5,000 in all classes. Class A properties now are bringing $75,000 to $78,000 per unit; class B, $45,000 to $48,000 per apartment; and class C, $30,000.
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