"Dallas-Fort Worth does not look good compared to the nation as a whole," says Greg Willett of M/PG Research Inc. in Carrollton. The nation's average occupancy is 93%.

Willett tells GlobeSt.com that class B and class C are now feeling the same pinch in rents as class A, with rent dropping and concessions mounting. Large signs advertising $0 move-in are cropping up on the sides of some complexes.

"The problem is demand not supply," Willett says. "Landlords are going to get a little more aggressive in trying to get people inside the door."

Willett says the region is not overbuilt and it's not a repeat of the late 1980s. The problem, he says, is the economy and move-outs to single-family homes. A market can withstand one without the other, but not both in tandem. The market will continue to backslide for the first six months and then pick up some momentum. The end result, he says, is that 2003 will put the region's multifamily market "back to where we are."

Effective rent fell 1.4% in 2002, with the change being measured on a same-store basis. East Plano, one of the market leaders in previous quarters, took the biggest hit, with rent dropping 9.1% last year. The corridor's rent, Willett says, got "a little out of line with the rates in other neighborhoods along the Telecom Corridor, so a price correction was required."

Far Northeast Dallas rent fell 4.9% while Allen/McKinney dipped 4.5%. Areas falling 3% to 4% were Richardson, North Dallas, West Irving and Las Colinas/Valley Ranch. The more fortunate, posting increases above 3%, were Oak Law/Park Cities, South Dallas and select areas of Fort Worth's West Side.

Overall, yearend occupancy was 90.4% in Dallas and 90.9% in Fort Worth. At the year's close, there were 10,933 units under construction, with 9,292 in projects that will deliver this year.