"2002 was a good year for our market," Herbert D. Weitzman, chairman and CEO of Dallas-based Weitzman Group, said yesterday at an annual forecast that attracts the Who's Who of the North Texas retail brokerage community. "But, we had a soft landing. I expect to see 2003 be soft too."

Of course, what's "soft" in Texas would be welcome in many US communities. Dallas-Fort Worth boasts 27 sf per person of retail product or nine sf more than the US average.

Weitzman's research, accepted as gospel around town, showed that 2.7 million sf of the absorbed space came from community centers, a sector that accounts for 79.2% of the market and one that ended the year with an 88.4% occupancy. Plano was responsible for absorbing one-third of the bottom line. Only power centers posted an absorption loss, 507,104 sf, most of which has been laid at the doorstep of Addison Town Center and a construction level of 200,000 sf in the market segment.

Overall, the DFW region--the fifth largest in the nation--has an occupancy of 89.8%, down from 91% a year ago, but still hardy enough to keep the Sam Walton crowd expanding north, east, south and west in the metroplex. In addition to Plano, hot development pockets are Arlington, Frisco, Las Colinas, Fort Worth and Northeast Tarrant County.

"Grocery anchors continue to be one of the strongest investment markets," Weitzman told the crowd at Dallas' Nick & Sam's Restaurant, "because they deliver day-to-day goods." Community centers most definitely will continue its hold on the market. No new malls rose last year and perhaps only one will rise this year. Construction was held to four million sf in 2002, down two million sf from the previous year. Total inventory is now 143.3 million sf, 35% of which is less than 10 years old.

Is Dallas-Fort Worth on the verge of being overbuilt? "We always have been," Weitzman said, adding that vacancy has hovered at 10% for the last five years.

Wal-Mart, as it continues to expand, is setting the tone, whether it's prices, locations or even the way business is done as others follow the lead for streamlined distribution networks and customer treatment. But even Wal-Mart recognizes the need for change, Weitzman pointed out, noting that the big push will be its neighborhood market concept. "Customer fatigue" in shopping the supercenters is the motivation to grow the concept, he said. In 1999, Wal-Mart controlled 5% of the DFW market; today, it's 12%. "And, believe me," Weitzman said, "it will continue to grow.