There’s been a lot of back-and-forth lately about the unemployment picture. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that the jobless rate has fallen below 9% for the first time in two years. Some see this as further evidence of economic growth and, perhaps, an endorsement of the Obama administration’s efforts. Others say no, the federal government has massaged the numbers for political gain and hasn’t been forthright about the ranks of either the underemployed or people who have simply given up looking for work.

I suspect the truth is somewhere between the cheerleading and the naysaying. Certainly we’ve gotten plenty of positive news since the end of 2010, independent of the federal job numbers.

Better than-expected holiday sales have segued into a more sustained uptick in consumer spending as 2011 goes on. Both small employers and larger ones are talking about hiring again, at least if surveys from the National Small Business Association and Manpower Inc. are to be believed. The Federal Reserve says its latest Beige Book survey of central banks shows that economic activity is up in almost every region of the country. Even if you disregard all of these reports, just walk into a commercial real estate conference and feel a much higher energy level than you would have sensed a year ago.

But while adding 192,000 new jobs in February is an improvement on the 67,000 that were added in January, it’s not enough to regain momentum. If you’re stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic and crawling along at 5 mph, you’re still crawling even if you accelerate by 40% to a white-knuckle 7 mph.

US employers will have to add jobs at a much faster clip to not only make up for the eight million that were lost in the downturn, but also to overcome the effects of public-sector downsizing. There’s a little thing known as population growth to factor into unemployment-rate projections, too. Also, what kinds of jobs are being added today: white-collar occupations that use office space or part-time, low-paying retail positions?

And what about people who have abandoned the search for work? How many are out there? Optimistic predictions say that as the economy and hiring improve, these thwarted job-seekers will get back into the mix. I’m not so sure, especially since we’re hearing more reports of employers who won’t consider hiring someone who isn’t already gainfully employed.

The implication for the office sector: outside the core markets, we may be looking at a glacially slow recovery in occupancy. Agree or disagree? Let us know.