NEW YORK CITY-In what IPD’s Simon Fairchild called a strong recovery over the preceding two years, US commercial real estate posted a 14.2% return for 2010, according to results of IPD’s US annual index released Monday. That represented the third best showing over the past decade, said Jim Valente, director of perfomance and risk analytics.

Managing director of IPD North America, Fairchild told an audience at Nasdaq’s MarketSite in Midtown that the recovery, here and globally, was due to renewed strength in the capital markets more than anything else. Additionally, experts in the panel discussion that concluded the afternoon’s presentation warned that 14% returns might not be the norm over a five-year period.

“The worst thing you can tell an investor is to expect unlevered returns in the mid-teens” for the long term, said Jeff Barclay, managing director, Goldman Sachs. However, Bob Ruggles, president of Altus Group, noted that “barring any economic calamity,” a return in the low- to mid-teens “is in the bank already” for 2011.

A key theme in both individual and panel presentations during the two-hour event was the uneven nature of the recovery across commercial real estate sectors and markets. Barclay noted that “a distinct separation” of markets is a key factor at this point in the cycle. In office, for example, there are “very strong pockets of strength,” but overall he was more bullish about multifamily. Robert White Jr., founder of Real Capital Analytics, gave high marks to the growth potential in class A office rents, but said the competitive picture of class B and C properties changing hands would keep rent appreciation topped out in those classes.

On the debt market side, Michael Giliberto, president of S. Michael Giliberto & Co., noted that the resurgence in CMBS was already apparent. It’s more instructive, he said, to focus on renewed activity from private investors, including insurance companies. White predicted that public and private REITs will continue dominating the market this year, chasing yield into secondary markets. During Monday’s event, Giliberto’s company and IPD announced a strategic relationship for IPD to distribute the Giliberto-Levy Commercial Mortgage Performance Index.

The panelists identified some warning signs, with Barclay advising the audience to watch the behavior on the lending side. “That’s where discipline is lost first and lost worst,” he quipped. Ruggles noted that discipline has been forced onto buyers thus far because of the lack of product. The question is whether discipline will be maintained as more assets come to market, he added.