NEW YORK CITY-The FDIC may be inching away from the loss-share agreements it’s employed to move out large portfolios of distressed loans from failed banks, but the private sector is likely to take a page from the federal agency’s playbook and replicate the structured-sale model, said Greenberg Traurig shareholder Tom Galli during Wednesday’s “How to Find Success in Distress” webinar. “This will be a part of the strategy for smaller and regional banks in their recapitalization efforts,” Galli said.

It’s one of the potential opportunities for investors as the volume of distressed property sales is poised to grow “exponentially,” said moderator John Salustri, citing figures from CapLease. An RTC-like flood is probably not in the cards, though. “I don’t think community banks are going to be forced to sell their assets in the near term,” said Ronald Roark, CEO of special servicer Crown Northrop. For investors waiting on an FDIC takeover of the hundreds of banks on its watch list, “it’s going to be a slow process,” he advised.

Where the opportunities are, who’s getting the best deals and strategies for success were all part of the conversation during the latest in the GlobeSt.com webinar series. Ryan Anderson, co-president/partner at Mariner Real Estate Management, cited small-balance loans as an opportunity, but one that requires a great deal of manpower to pursue.

As for the best deals, Taylor Grant, receiver with California Real Estate Receiverships, said the jury’s still out. Grant said he’s been seeing many one-off deals happening lately; the question, he added, was whether they’re overpaying compared to pool buyers. Galli noted two common practices among the players in deals his firm has helped orchestrate lately: teaming with the right professionals in terms of knowing the property type or the region and doing “the most extensive due diligence practical under the circumstances.”

However the game plays out, it’s likely to be what Grant called “a double-header.” Roark estimated that we’ll see $200 billion in loans originated this year, as against $400 billion to $500 billion in maturing debt during 2011. “I don’t know where that money is going to come from,” he said. William Green, managing director of Tannery Brook Partners, similarly predicted a long slog, saying there will be no full recovery in the market until home ownership drops below 60%.

Salustri, content director for ALM’s Real Estate Media Group, moderated the hour-long discussion. To listen to a replay of the March 30 event, available on demand until June 30, click here.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.