What To Expect for CRE Valuations If a Mild Recession Hits This Year

CRE property values are likely to slump as economic growth slows and bond yields rise, according to a new analysis from Cushman & Wakefield, which pegs the average decline if a “mild” recession happens to clock in at around 20% over the next two years and range between 4% and 23% depending on property type.

But despite that, “without question, certain segments of the market will thrive over the next few years, easily outperforming our national forecasts,” Cushman’s Kevin Thorpe, Rebecca Rockey, James Bohnaker, and Rob Miller note.  But “we can’t emphasize enough that all real estate is intensely local.,” they say. “Not every product type or geography will follow the national glide path. Even within each asset class, a large portion will likely outperform our forecasts, and some will likely underperform. Within that volatility lies the opportunity.”