The $306-billion California State Teachers' Retirement System pension fund, known as Calstrs, is too big to call a canary in a coal mine—and that sound you're hearing is not singing.

It's the roar of plunging property values going over a Niagara Falls of maturing debt as interest rates turn spreads upside down. It's so loud we can't hear the guy in the barrel next to us, but he's mouthing the words "soft landing." Hi, Jay.

The Calstrs fund's chief investment officer told the Financial Times this week he is now "bracing" for write-downs in the value of assets in the fund's $52B property portfolio amid growing evidence that the Fed's monetary tightening has unleashed a spiral of plunging valuations.

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