Retail Headed for Major Shakeout, Says Consultant

That will mean focusing on a two-mile to three-mile radius instead of the traditional five-mile circle suburban malls have been used to, Marks says.

If the smaller centers can't do that, they won't survive among new players such as the 1.3-million-sf, $250 million Mall at Millennia, the expanding 1.6-million-sf Florida Mall and the planned $200 million Altamonte Springs Town Center.

"Central Florida is fairly retail-saturated, so all new developments will, to some extent, take customers away from existing retail facilities," Marks says.

For example, in suburban Winter Park, FL, the reborn, 500,000-sf Winter Park Village is already affecting customer traffic on Park Avenue, the city's landmark retail district.

"Clearly, the neo-traditionally designed Winter Park Village has taken market share away from other entertainment/restaurant projects in north central Florida," Marks says.

Orlando's retail development scene has been changing almost every 10 years, the consultant says.

"In the 1960s, we had the big, open-air malls that were large shopping centers like the original Colonial Plaza (in east Orlando, three miles from Downtown)," Marks says.

In 1970s, regional malls, such as the 1.2 million-sf Orlando Fashion Square and the 1.3-million-sf Altamonte Mall, dominated.

"The 80s and the 90s saw the birth of the big-box stores and Wal-Mart SuperCenters, and now we're seeing another major evolution," the former Trammell Crow Co. retail executive tells GlobeSt.com. The new change involves retail centers reaching out to larger trade areas than ever before.

"The end result is that older, less ideally situated and positioned properties will have to adjust," Marks says. "They'll have to think creatively and they'll have to content themselves with smaller market areas."

Marks thinks some of that creativity could come from new restaurant-themed concepts and entertainment hubs.

"Movie theaters are playing a much bigger role now than we expected," the consultant says. "They attract younger, fashion-conscious consumers that most retailers want to serve."

Marks says "dinner and a movie is still a well-positioned activity in our culture."

Smaller retail centers that incorporate such a concept could retain their existing customer base and survive during the coming shakeout.