"Our estimate for January 2004 retail sales is essentially the same as January 2003, representing relatively flat consumer activity," Silverstein says.
As far as employment, March 2004 revised employment numbers are consistently lower than initial numbers from April 2002 to December 2003.
"This January is consistent with previous years, in that January employment numbers tend to be significantly less than December employment due to the holiday hiring bump," she says. "The rolling average has been decreasing at about the same rate for several months."
Silverstein also notes building permits for both attached and detached homes continue to decline, with permits in January falling about 10%--about the same rate of decline since November 2003.
Meanwhile, first-time unemployment claims are up in January, she says, as is typical after the holiday hiring spree ends. However, claims are down significantly since January 2003, she says.
There also is a slight increase in manufacturing hours, which continues the upward trend since mid-2003 and indicates some general improvement in the economy, according to Silverstein.
Employers also remain cautious about hiring prospects, according to the Manpower Employment Survey, she notes. Consistent with the previous month's index, only 14% of the surveyed employers plan to hire new workers in the coming quarter. Construction and services have the highest prospects and manufacturing is mixed. Manufacturers may be paying more overtime, as opposed to hiring new people.
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