Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is a partner at Miller Ryan LLC in New York City.

Respondents to last week's feedback poll have a good deal of faith in the infrastructures of our cities, with two-thirds (66%) that they are ready for future growth. Only 34%, by contrast, label their CBDs as old and broken. Commentator Miller has more than a passing knowledge of the US infrastructure problem. Best known for his annual authorship of Emerging Trends in Real Estate (sponsored by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers), Miller recently unveiled Infrastructure 2007: A Global Perspective (this sponsored by ULI and Ernst & Young). And as the report reveals--and his commentary below echoes--despite the enthusiasm of our readers, US cities are in a $1.6-trillion hole in terms of future growth preparedness.

"The question needs to be nuanced a bit more than as it was posed. There are cities like New York that have very good infrastructure even though they're old, and places like Atlanta and Dallas that may have newer infrastructures, but because they weren't well planned, they're not suitable for future growth. It's not one size fits all.

"Then there are older cities that have old infrastructures but are not doing well because their economic base is slowly withering and they don't have the tax base to support the upgrade of their systems. This is common in the rustbelt and Midwest manufacturing centers. So there are three models, and they are very different.

"Unfortunately, there is no fourth model in the US, no good examples of old cities upgrading their infrastructures to meet future growth. For that you have to go overseas.

In China, for example you're seeing tremendous amounts of money being used to upgrade the country's main cities, and new cities are being built in expectation of future need. You're seeing significant investment in roads, rails and subways, all interconnected in a way that should serve the country well from a competitive standpoint going forward.

"In other countries, Japan has always made investment in integrated systems such as these. Korea is talking about the creation of a new capitol to take pressure off of Seoul. India, which is trying to emerge from third-world status, is looking into changes that will make it competitive in the world market.

"Look at what's happening around the world. The US today is a laggard. And in fact, as has been pointed out in various studies, the US has an infrastructure-spending deficit of $1.6 trillion. That's money that we should be spending on the systems that support our cities, and we simply are not doing that."