CUBA: IN OR OUT? Increasingly, US developers are looking to China and other growing international arenas to expand their asset base. So when it was announced late last month that Fidel Castro was stepping down from power in Cuba, we were curious about the industry's interest level in the island-nation. Last week's Quick Poll revealed that 43% of respondents believe that development will take place, but it is years away. Another 34% said that they are not interested in development, since Castro simply shifted power to his brother Raul, who will keep the communist regime intact. And 23% of those polled said they are now looking with interest. John Homsher, a principal at Chicago-based global real estate services firm Podolsky Northstar Corfac International, gave his take on the situation. He is with the majority of our respondents.

"It's too early to say whether or not they're going to be as much an economic engine as China has been over the past several years. But hopefully the transfer of power from Fidel to his brother will open up some economic changes. The early reports indicate that he wants to cut out waste in government and try to have a more economically-driven economy. The question is, with a socialist regime, whether or not that can really happen or if it's just lip service.

"The US real estate community has a lot of interest in Cuba. The question is whether or not the sanctions will be lifted by the US government for entrepreneurial and institutional investors to execute transactions in the country. I would agree that it's going to be some time before Cuba is going to open up for US real estate investment.

"We wouldn't just arbitrarily lift sanctions. We need to see a change in attitude in the regime in Cuba to make some changes toward the democratic process.

"Our firm has regional and national meetings coming up, perhaps it will be a topic that will come up, but we haven't really discussed it yet as a global network. Our membership is very interested in what is happening in China. We have an affiliation with King Sturge in London, and they are making inroads there. That's client-driven.

"It's too early to tell if our clients would be interested in Cuba. But when it does open up to US investment, it will first and foremost be on the residential and hospitality side, followed by retail."

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