Uncertainty Clouds Industrial Market

And phases like "a lot of questions" and "hard to predict" were part of the dialog offered up against the backdrop of the uncertain national market. The former opinion was voiced by panel moderator Mindy Lissner, SVP for CB Richard Ellis, who started the discussion by asking panelists, "where's the market going and what are the issues affecting the market?"

[IMGCAP(2)]"It's hard to predict out to the future," responded Andy Merin, vice chairman at Cushman & Wakefield. "We won't see the market of the past few years, at least for the near term."

But there's a big "but…" in the equation. Unlike other real estate sectors, there wasn't necessarily all gloom and doom at this industrial conference. "The market is not that far off in terms of market demand, user demand," Merin said. "While we can't really predict when things will turn around, we're hoping for a good Q4."

[IMGCAP(3)]And from a standpoint of finance, "things are slowly happening," Merin said. "There is money for industrial real estate. Deals are getting done."

According to Rick Vanderbeck, marketing and leasing director for First Industrial Realty Trust in New Jersey, a lot of the uncertainty is trickling down from the national level. At the local/regional level, it has added up to reduced job creation in an environment where land constraints "make things difficult," and government regulatory issues "impact the way New Jersey is perceived" as a place to do business.

Vanderbeck reminded his audience that, "things are cyclical, things change, people react. We're going to get out of it OK," he predicted.

David Houston, president of Colliers Houston, had some strong opinions on the subject of government. "There is an absolute lack of leadership by our elected officials," he said, offering a tongue-in-cheek suggestion that the state legislature could be moved to the nearby under-construction Meadowlands Xanadu as an "entertainment feature." He termed state government "in absolute denial" over its performance in helping deal with the state's economic problems.

Referring to the recent unveiling of a 12-bill legislative agenda by a coalition of developers and business leaders aimed at solving some of the state's government-related business woes, "hopefully we'll get some of them passed," Houston said. "We have some serious problems, and until Trenton admits that the state has problems, things won't get better."

One of the places New Jersey has been losing business to has been Pennsylvania. Ernest Christoph, SVP for Hartz Mountain Industries, blamed that on, "the policies of New Jersey. [Pennsylvania] has entitlements and tax breaks that New Jersey doesn't have. Pennsylvania has a much more friendly atmosphere."

Lissner brought up the fact that Church & Dwight had just revealed that day that it was closing its plant in North Brunswick and moving the operation to Pennsylvania. "Pennsylvania was very pro-active," she said, speaking with some knowledge of the deal. "The governor was on the phone every day."

Vanderbeck said that "other states have their arms wide open. New Jersey doesn't." Over and above the fact that the state is land-constrained and land is expensive, "things that are fundamental to our business, other states are just friendlier."

Turning to specific markets, Houston mentioned that the prominent New Jersey Turnpike Exit 8A industrial market is seeing high vacancies and low demand. "I don't see that getting better until the economy and the state get better. Retail sales are a problem, and until retail sales start blooming again, things won't get better. There are a lot of problems in retail sales that are translating into the 8A market."

But despite the negative issues, and looking particularly from an investment perspective, "New Jersey is still a place that attracts investors who need to have a portfolio here," Merin said. "There is still interest by investors. We have the ports, the location and other assets. People are still interested in investing here, either directly or in joint ventures with developers who need capital."