No spin can save you

The inevitable tidal wave of commercial loan busts begins to form--over the next six months more borrower reserves run out and owners come to terms with the harsh reality of rising vacancies and lowering rents. Why should they put good money after bad trying to keep up with debt service when the property is worth less than the loan and the markets won't recover any time soon to rescue them? It's time to bail.

Back in the early nineties, I practiced the spin game for a major institutional investor with a veritable bevy of headline grabbing stinker investments. When a high profile loan or equity deal went bust, we did what some of the big names are doing today--suggesting that our other investments made big returns and we're doing fine otherwise. Don't judge us by this one huge deal or that other huge deal that's going bust too. No judge us by our entire portfolio and no we won't open up the kimono to let you see just how well we're doing for our clients. That's between them and us--proprietary info, advisor-client, el priveeto.

Look if you're invested in commercial real estate today, made big bets late in the game, didn't get into cash two years ago--you're suffering big losses, more if you borrowed heavily (unless you borrowed so much that you didn't have much equity to lose and your lender is stuck). All the spin can't save you. We were geniuses on the way up, and dunderheads now. There's no way around it.

Oh watch out, here comes that wave, and there's no high ground for an escape.