Real Estate Econometrics' Chandan

The GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been the backbone of multifamily finance since the start of the credit crisis and then recession; indeed even during a strong economy they provide the majority of finance to this asset class. The commercial real estate industry has been, not surprisingly, very supportive of the government measures to buttress the agencies since last September. Therefore, the results of last week's Quick Poll were something of a surprise. The question--is $15 billion, Fannie Mae's most recent request in emergency Treasury Department aid--finally too much. The responses were a lopsided 70% to 30% in favor of the notion that, yes, it was too much.

No doubt, some of the responses were made with en eye to the overwhelming level of financial triage the government has performed on the economy. Fannie Mae alone is topping $60 billion in requests for emergency aid. Other respondents have a more nuanced view of the issue – a view that still leads them to conclude that additional aid is counterproductive at this point.

Right now Fannie Mae is required to make a 10% payment for any monies transferred to it as part of its preferred share agreement, Dr. Sam Chandan, founder of Real Estate Econometrics, tells GlobeSt.com. That puts the GSE at an annualized payment of $6 billion.

"Only twice in the last seven years has Fannie Mae's income been in excess of that amount [$6 billion]," he says.

"What is happening with this aid is that it is creating a situation where it may be impossible for Fannie Mae to return to profitability." It may be that the preferred share agreement has to be restructured or revisited, he says. Also, the amount of taxpayer money being used to support the GSEs--Freddie Mac has accepted over $50 billion in funds--will lead to 'bailout fatigue' in Congress for housing and mortgage aid, if it hasn’t already. Look for the issue to receive serious attention in February when the administration's budget is traditionally submitted.