Tenant Survey Signals Retail Rebound

The survey canvassed store managers of a roster of 1,000 Levin property management tenants in the states of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. Ninety percent of Levin Management's 12.5 million-square-foot portfolio consists of open-air retail centers, with results of the survey therefore more indicative of that genre rather than enclosed malls.

"These results provide a closer look at some of the retail trends that have been discussed in the media," says Matthew Harding, president and COO of Levin Management. "We've been seeing the big pieces, but our survey really brings the results down to street level. And we feel that the results are promising in terms of the year ahead."

Asked how their holiday 2009 sales compared to 2008, 55.2% of store managers said they were either the same or better, and 44.8% said they were down. Actual sales increases were reported by 22% of respondents, with most citing rises of 20% or less. Most of those posting drops pegged them in the 0-30% range.

"Those results are obviously mixed," Harding notes. "But the fact that 33% said their sales held steady and 22% reported increases is an indication that the consumer retail market is beginning to stabilize. Keep in mind that the projections for the holiday season were not very good."

Given a range of dates to track holiday sales, responses from store managers indicate a trend of an early Black Friday rush, followed by a mid-December lull and another rush during the week before Christmas despite a major snowstorm along the East Coast. All of those polled said that between 10% and more than 50% of all holiday sales occurred in just the four-day period of December 21-24, with more than one-third crediting those four days with 21% to 30% of total sales.

As far as key retail categories, 57.8% of food tenants (both grocery and restaurant sub-categories) reported higher sales during the holidays, 15.7% reported the same as a year ago and 26.3% reported lower sales. In the apparel category, 56.5% reported higher sales, 34.7% reported the same and just 8.6% reported lower sales.

"Again, the results are mixed," Harding says. "But we believe that they continue to show signs of a consumer market that is regaining traction."

Finally, in response to the question, will your company be looking for additional store locations in 2010, 37% said yes.

"The fact that more than one-third indicated they will add stores is a very positive sign," Harding tells GlobeSt.com. "Even in the best of times, not all retailers are seeking to expand. The response to this particular question, in this current economy, is therefore encouraging.

"Overall, we believe the results of this survey corroborate the anecdotal evidence provided by the media," Harding adds. "These statistics give us reason to be guardedly optimisticfor the year ahead."