That "hit bottom" theme has competition, however, with "At least it's not 2009," a phrase in nearly every industry player today. About 40% of the survey respondents said they are "bullish" on the market today, up from only 10% when the survey was last done in September 2008.
Jay Epstien, partner and chairman of the company's US Real Estate Group, tells GlobeSt.com. that now is the time for the economy to start unfettered growth. "I don't think we're out of the woods yet," he says. "There's lots of good things that have happened in the past quarter. I think everyone believes that the economy will come back, but slowly, and only with the return of jobs."
While job growth is a main indicator of economic recovery, there are other factors at play, Epstien says. Keeping interest rates low, the finance regulatory bill and the abundance of capital waiting for the bid-ask to get to an acceptable gap are also on the minds of commercial property owners, investors, developers and brokers, according to the survey.
One other likely hurdle, Epstien says, is the massive, overhanging lot of properties that have yet to go through foreclosure. More than 60% of respondents do not expect the CMBS market to return in time to help refinance the more than $150 billion in loans coming due in the next two years.
"We keep kicking the can and deferring the problem, so it's difficult to get a sense of timing when we can return to a balanced and normal property playing field," he says. "There were property sales occurring in the first quarter, though not enough to create a sense of real estate return. However, the fact that people are bidding on properties now, instead of the lack of activity in 2009, is a positive sign. I think we're going to claw our way back."
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