Uncertainty Tempers Bullish Outlook

(To register for RealShare New York, click here)

NEW YORK CITY-Listeners who tuned in Thursday to the RealShare New York FreeView got a sense of the myriad of opportunities and challenges that will figure in the bigger conversation at next month’s live event. On the one hand; Marcus & Millichap’s Hessam Nadji said the outlook for multifamily investment was “much brighter than a year ago and brighter than most people expected.” On the other hand, real estate attorney Jeffrey Lenobel cautioned that “the outlook for capital markets in the commercial real estate sector remains quite uncertain.”

Nadji, managing director of research services at Marcus & Millichap, and Lenobel, partner and chair of the real estate department at Schulte Roth & Zabel LLP, were two of the experts during Thursday’s FreeView. They were joined by Howard Roth, global and Americas head of real estate at Ernst & Young and John Salustri, content director with ALM’s Real Estate Media Group. All four will be part of larger panel discussions at next month’s event, scheduled for Oct. 28 at the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown.

Nadji kicked off Thursday’s free webinar with a discussion of the apartments market here and nationally. He noted that the striking improvement in multifamily fundamentals has been achieved even as job growth has been modest at best. New York City in particular has the lowest multifamily vacancy rate of any major metropolitan area.

Lenobel, who will moderate the capital markets panel at RSNY, contrasted that note of caution with some of the bright spots. He noted that CMBS lenders have become more active, and loan-to-value ratios of 70% are being achieved for stronger deals. He also predicted that opportunities for so-called loan-to-own deals “will expand exponentially.”

Roth will be one of the “New York Power Panel” lineup that will get the day started at RSNY, and he offered a preview of what the group will be discussing. Opportunities in the New York market, along with the implications of the Dodd-Frank Act and Washington’s tax agenda, will be on the agenda.

The city’s megaprojects, which range from the World Trade Center rebuilding currently under way to the forthcoming Hudson Yards development, will be the focus of an RSNY panel which Salustri will moderate. He told listeners Thursday that what these mammoth projects, past and future, have in common is that “all are greater than themselves.” Additionally, Salustri said, all have local community presence as well as national presence, and this helps to define their character.

Thursday’s FreeView was part of ALM Real Estate Media Group’s webinar series. Moderating the discussion, available for replay through Dec. 23, was Eliot Markowitz.

(To listen to a replay of the Freeview webinar, please click here)