WASHINGTON, DC-This year was the year the commercial real estate industry hit bottom, say respondents, in one form or another, in PwC and Urban Land Institute’s annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2011. Signs of an improvement are distinctly on the horizon especially in such cities as Washington, DC and New York. Still, though, after one of the deepest troughs in recent memory, the recovery is decidedly uneven--and  nowhere is that as apparent as the capital markets and related pricing trends.

Financing will remain available - but only for the best projects. Buyers will still hold out for the top prices, with sellers equally as stubborn. Fannie and Freddie will still provide multifamily financing, despite the impending prospect of reform. Such trends have been apparent for the last two years, but in 2011 -- and further into 2012 -- respondents in the survey expect to see change.

For instance, this year the CMBS market will likely originate $10 billion in transactions, ULI Senior Resident Fellow Steve Blank notes. By 2012 that number is expected to be as high as $75 billion to $100 billion -- granted, still a far cry from the halcyon days but far better than 2009.

Next year will also be the year that buyers finally dial back their expectations for investment sales pricing, Mitch Roschelle, partner with PwC’s real estate advisory, said. Respondents don’t foresee a blank check recapitalization from the equity markets, even as the recovery continues. “The market is recapitalizing, but only a select basis,” Blank says. “I think out of 20 deals in registration we will see on 10 get done.”

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