Miami Proves Resilient But Do We Have a Good Memory?

MIAMI—Everywhere I look in Miami I see good news on the commercial real estate front. No, it’s not like it was in 2006. But it’s not like it was in 2009, either. Miami is rising above the rubble.

One of the indicators I turn to each year is the Akerman U.S. Real Estate Summit survey. It’s a poll of senior real estate executives that takes the pulse of how confident they are, what they see as the hot sectors—and hot button issues.

This year, 82% of respondents expressed greater confidence and an improved outlook for the industry. That’s a 6% increase over last year. Noteworthy is the fact that 50% cite the improving U.S. economy as the primary driver for their optimism.

It was no surprise to me that these commercial real estate execs pegged multifamily as the most active in terms of real estate transactions, foreign investment and return to pre-recession development levels in 2012. This is happening right before my eyes in Miami, especially Downtown Miami where billions are going into mixed-use developments via Genting and Swire.

One story still hasn’t changed, though. Well, at least not much. Forty-three percent of commercial real estate execs cite availability of credit as the most pressing issue facing the real estate industry right now. That figure is down 10% from last year. But it seems the industry is finding other ways to get deals done.

For example, 44% of responding commercial real estate execs expect private equity to fund a significant portion of commercial real estate debt and/or equity in 2012. That’s up 6% from last year. Another 29% expect foreign investors to do plenty of funding. And 32% expect banks to step in with dollars—a nearly three-fold increase from just 8% in 2011.

This was a national survey, but I see these indicators coming to life in Miami and other pockets of Florida—one of the hardest hit states. Miami is proving once again that the Magic City is resilient. That's encouraging. My only hope is that as the next wave of development begins, we remember the lessons from the dark condos and offices that lined our streets in 2009.