Tisch, Zuckerman: Two Recovery Views

(Jonathan Tisch is bullish on the outlook. But even he has concerns. Part Two of this story will cover those in depth. Come back this afternoon.)

NEW YORK CITY-Arguably, no two savvier commercial real estate execs exist than Jonathan Tisch and Mort Zuckerman. So it was interesting to see these two icons mount opposing views of the state and the future of the current snail's-pace economic recovery. The difference of opinion occurred at the opening sessions of the NYU Hospitality Conference.

“Travel is emerging as a key driver of the recovery,” said Tisch, co-chair of the Loews Corp. and conference chairman. As a result, against the backdrop of this slow recovery, “I see a long-term boom for travel.” The bullish Tisch projected that by 2016, an additional 800 million international passengers will take to the skies . . . and presumably, hotel rooms.

But Boston Properties chairman and CEO Mort Zuckerman's economic glass appears to be half empty. “We need a recovery program to recover from our recovery,” he quipped to the packed house at the Marriott Marquis Hotel, bemoaning at least in part the fed's inability to kick-start a robust recovery. “I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel.” And given the fragile nature of the upturn to date, “we're very vulnerable to any kind of shock.”

Coincidentally, Zuckerman was being interviewed by Thomas Pritzker, executive chairman of Hyatt, and brother of probable-commerce secretary Penny Pritzker. Coincidentally because both Zuckerman and Pritzker agreed that someone with sis's pedigree would get the Presidential Ear and be a strong and effective advocate for business in the Obama White House.

But Zuckerman's fiscal doubt seemed not to be the order of the morning, and expert after expert fell in line behind Tisch. “We're bullish, and we've earned it,” said Chris Nassetta, president and CEO of Hilton. “The economy isn't super-charged and that suggests a longer upcycle.”

Within that optimistic expectation, Asia and Southeast Asia promise to be at least 20-year markets, Nassetta projected. He added Latin America to that mix as well.

“The problem with China,” countered W. Edward Walter, president and CEO of Host, “is that it's difficult to find a deal that makes sense to an owner. It's a much better environment for an operator.” But if you're looking for branding, Europe is the place.

Or so says Stephen Joyce, who sports the same titles for Choice. “We like Europe a lot. A lot of independent European hotels have not been branded, he noted and “our strategy is to bring large-scale formats to independent hotels there.” He said he's focused now on France and Italy.

(The global hotel picture looks bright, especially if you take Tisch's view. But even optimist Tisch had concerns. We'll cover those in part two this afternoon.)