Retailers Face Slow-Growth Holiday Season

LOS ANGELES-Holiday sales are projected for slow growth once again, with research firm IBISWorld projecting a 3.4% gain over 2012 totals to an estimated $68.9 billion in gift sales and related items during the month of December. The firm cites slow growth in disposable incomes and sustained unemployment, compounded by the recent government shutdown.

The National Retail Federation is a shade more optimistic on a percentage basis, with the Washington, DC-based association forecasting overall retail spending during November and December to rise 3.9% to $602 billion--including non-gift spending--despite a Black Friday that came in below last year's results. The weekend total of an estimated $57.2 billion reflects a lower per-capita spend by consumers, although there were more of them in stores than ever: north of 92 million compared to about 89 million during the same period a year ago.

Online retail fared better on a percentage basis during the busiest shopping day of the year. Reston, VA-based research firm comScore said that Black Friday ecommerce rose 15% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, while Reuters reported that analyst were projecting Cyber Monday sales to up more than 20% Y-O-Y. For the holiday season thus far, US consumers have spent about $20.6 billion online, up 3% when compared against the four-week November selling period and up 24% when compared to the four weeks leading up to and including Thanksgiving weekend in '12, which fell a week earlier last year.

“While Black Friday—and now Thanksgiving Day—is the traditional kick-off to the brick-and-mortar holiday shopping season, both days continue to grow in importance on the online channel,” says comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni. “Clearly many consumers prefer to avoid the crowds and lines typically associated with Black Friday by shopping from the comfort of their own homes, and we saw a record 66 million Americans do that this year.” Not surprisingly, Amazon topped the list of online destinations, followed by eBay and the online versions of Walmart, Best Buy and Target.

Also of note, says Fulgoni, is that the recent trend of kick-starting holiday shopping by opening stores on Thanksgiving Day seems to have exerted “a spillover effect on the online channel. Thanksgiving once again posted a well above average growth rate and is the fastest-growing online shopping day over the past five years, as more Americans opt for couch commerce following their Thanksgiving Day festivities.”

Even so, NRF data show that brick-and-mortar stores still draw more traffic. The industry association says that more than 76 million shoppers visited their favorite department store over the weekend, and nearly 55 million visited discount stores.

About 45 million consumers shopped at electronics stores and 40 million went to clothing or accessories stores for gifts, according to NRF.  Reporting results of a consumer survey, NRF says slightly fewer people (76.4% vs. 79.6% in '12) took advantage of retailers' online and in-store promotions to buy non-gift items.