Job Growth Strong Despite EDD Stats

ORANGE, CA—'We believe the current monthly job growth in both California and Orange County is underestimated,' says a report from the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. Current monthly employment statistics issued by the Employment Development Department suggest the pace of job growth has slowed significantly in California and Orange County, but the EDD's sampling methodology doesn't fully capture job creation by newly established small firms and hiring by existing firms that add only one or two workers, according to the report.

As GlobeSt.com has reported previously, Orange County's unemployment figures have outperformed the national average for quite some time, and the university's report says that steady job creation, lower unemployment rates and higher equity and home values have brightened consumer sentiment in California. Its survey of California consumer sentiment hit its highest reading since the beginning of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2007.

In addition, optimistic consumers have increased spending, and that in turn has positively affected employment in the retail, wholesale, food and leisure sectors, according to the report. This trend should continue into 2015.

Also, the university's measure of construction spending, which is derived from six-quarter lagged values of total building-permit valuation, increased sharply over the 2012-2014 period, the report reveals. With home prices increasing in an environment of tight supplies, the residential construction industry is responding by increasing the number of new housing permits. The permits drawn in 2014 will become actual spending in 2015.

The A. Gary Anderson Center did not respond before deadline to GlobeSt.com's request for a more in-depth comment on its expectations for Orange County's job growth in the future, given that this region has been outperforming the nation in total employment.