IRVINE, CA—The first wave of homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale during the recession are, in 2015, are now past the seven-year window they conservatively need to repair their credit and qualify to buy a home. More waves of these potential boomerang buyers will be moving past that seven-year window over the next eight years corresponding to the eight years of above-normal foreclosure activity from 2007 to 2014, according to RealtyTrac.

The Irvine-based firm analyzed foreclosure, affordability and demographic data to provide predictions of when and where these boomerang buyers are most likely to materialize.

Nearly 7.3 million potential boomerang buyers nationwide will be in a position to buy again from a credit repair perspective over the next eight years.

“The housing crisis certainly hit home the fact that homeownership is not for everyone, but those burned during the crisis should not immediately throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to their second chance at homeownership,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market which has more than 260,000 potential boomerang buyers. “Homeownership done responsibly is still one of the best disciplined wealth-building strategies, and there is much more data available for homebuyers than there was five years ago to help them make an informed decision about a home purchase.”

The tables below show how those emerging boomerang buyers break down by year, and in what markets most activity is likely, RealtyTrac says.

 

 

Potential Boomerang Buyers Nationwide

2015

551,359

2016

1,019,303

2017

1,125,827

2018

1,324,803

2019

1,112,584

2020

972,875

2021

721,005

2022

455,589

Total

7,283,345

 

 

MARKETS WITH MOST POTENTIAL

(with a population of at least 250,000)

MSA Name

2015 to 2022 Potential Boomerang Buyers

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

348,329

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

322,141

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI

304,501

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI

300,147

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

280,019

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

269,419

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA

264,562

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

220,660

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

127,680

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

124,715

 

HIGHEST RATE OF POTENTIAL BOOMERANG IN THE NEXT 8 YEARS

(with a population of at least 250,000)

MSA Name

Potential Boomerang Buyers 2015 to 2022 as Pct of Total Housing Units

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

26.30%

Merced, CA

23.03%

Stockton, CA

21.41%

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

21.36%

Modesto, CA

21.27%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

19.40%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

17.98%

Vallejo-Fairfield, CA

16.64%

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI

16.14%

Bakersfield, CA

15.52%

 

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