IRVINE, CA—Commercial property values have increased since last fall's surprise election of Donald Trump, but have done so more slowly. Ten-X says its latest Commercial Real Estate Nowcast shows that valuations increased just 0.1% over the course of the previous month. They're up just over 0.5% since November, according to Ten-X's monthly pricing index, which combines which combines the firm's proprietary transaction data with Google Trends data and investor surveys.
“Now four months removed from the presidential election, commercial real estate valuations remain in a lull as investors await more certainty on both the economy and the potential for sweeping federal policy changes,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with Ten-X. “As the Fed signals a series of rate hikes to come and key economic proposals stall in Washington, it appears the market may continue to stall until more clarity emerges.”
Predictably, apartments fared the best in the latest CRE Nowcast, with prices growing by 1.2% during March. Year over year, multifamily pricing has increased by 15.4%, notwithstanding stabilized fundamentals, tighter cap rate spreads and rising interest rates. “All signs appeared to be pointing toward a slowdown in apartment valuations, but the sector has again demonstrated its resiliency by posting additional pricing gains,” Muoio says.
Other sectors didn't fare as well, with industrial managing just 0.2% growth in pricing during March. Along with apartments, though, it was the only sector to show price increases for the month.
Conversely, office and retail values saw slight declines during March, slipping by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Ten-X notes that both sectors have been moving sideways since November, and retail has now contracted slightly in each of the past three months.
Ten-X's Hotel CRE Nowcast continued its decline by falling 1 percent in March. Pricing across the segment is now down 4.7% Y-O-Y and is off 11% from its peak in the fall of 2015, although March's overall decline was driven by drops in the Northeast and West. Both regions are home to cities that were adversely affected by a strong dollar, impediments to foreign travel to the US and robust supply pipelines.
IRVINE, CA—Commercial property values have increased since last fall's surprise election of Donald Trump, but have done so more slowly. Ten-X says its latest Commercial Real Estate Nowcast shows that valuations increased just 0.1% over the course of the previous month. They're up just over 0.5% since November, according to Ten-X's monthly pricing index, which combines which combines the firm's proprietary transaction data with
“Now four months removed from the presidential election, commercial real estate valuations remain in a lull as investors await more certainty on both the economy and the potential for sweeping federal policy changes,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with Ten-X. “As the Fed signals a series of rate hikes to come and key economic proposals stall in Washington, it appears the market may continue to stall until more clarity emerges.”
Predictably, apartments fared the best in the latest CRE Nowcast, with prices growing by 1.2% during March. Year over year, multifamily pricing has increased by 15.4%, notwithstanding stabilized fundamentals, tighter cap rate spreads and rising interest rates. “All signs appeared to be pointing toward a slowdown in apartment valuations, but the sector has again demonstrated its resiliency by posting additional pricing gains,” Muoio says.
Other sectors didn't fare as well, with industrial managing just 0.2% growth in pricing during March. Along with apartments, though, it was the only sector to show price increases for the month.
Conversely, office and retail values saw slight declines during March, slipping by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Ten-X notes that both sectors have been moving sideways since November, and retail has now contracted slightly in each of the past three months.
Ten-X's Hotel CRE Nowcast continued its decline by falling 1 percent in March. Pricing across the segment is now down 4.7% Y-O-Y and is off 11% from its peak in the fall of 2015, although March's overall decline was driven by drops in the Northeast and West. Both regions are home to cities that were adversely affected by a strong dollar, impediments to foreign travel to the US and robust supply pipelines.
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