Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has sounded a warning about the economic road ahead, cautioning that troubling conditions may soon emerge as pandemic-era funding dries up and the lingering effects of Trump administration tariffs begin to surface in the data. Speaking at a company conference on June 10, Dimon told the audience, “I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon. Employment will come down a little bit. Inflation will go up a little bit. Hopefully, just a little bit,” according to a transcript obtained from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The billionaire pointed to a recent surge in the U.S. workforce as a double-edged sword. Over the past few years, the country has added eight million people to its workforce. Factoring in the four to five million who lost jobs during the pandemic and have since returned, that still leaves an additional three to four million workers—roughly 1.5 to 2 million each year. This influx may help explain why unemployment remains low, Dimon said, but he warned that at some point, such rapid growth could slow the economy. “These are a lot of moving parts,” he added, emphasizing the complexity of the current environment.
Dimon also stressed that he tries not to be distracted by routine fluctuations, focusing instead on the major forces that shape the nation’s future, such as military and global economic alliances.
When pressed on what he meant by “soon,” Dimon pointed to the early signs of tariff impacts now beginning to appear. As GlobeSt.com previously reported, companies and consumers had been stockpiling goods to get ahead of tariffs—a trend that, according to Dimon, amounted to about $1 billion in purchases each day. “You had a lot of people buying stuff ahead of time, both consumers and businesses for inventory. It's hard to see what that meant. So, you haven't seen an effect yet other than in the sentiment [of consumers and businesses],” he explained.
Yet, Dimon was quick to note that sentiment is an unreliable predictor. “Neither consumers nor businesses ever pick the inflection points. They never have. So, if you're looking for that inflection point—because it really doesn't matter if it's up or down just a little bit—they're not going to tell you that,” he said.
For Dimon, the most significant red flag is leverage, and by extension, government deficit levels. In the U.S., a key indicator of investor confidence is the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note, which has been volatile, recently hovering between 4.3% and 4.4%. The yield has remained elevated since September 2023, a level not seen since 2006. Back then, yields were falling — now they are on the rise. Where they might head next, Dimon admitted, is anyone’s guess.
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