Two cities in upstate New York, Rochester and Syracuse, are the nation’s best positioned for robust rent growth over the coming year, according to a new analysis of the 100 top metros by Chandan Economics.
Cities were selected based on three levels of criteria: the differential between their annual home price growth and rent growth, the home forecast for the year ahead and the month-over-month change for rentals. Rochester and Syracuse were the only metros to satisfy all three, including positive home price growth forecasts, which were the second and third highest, respectively, in the U.S. overall.
“Rochester’s rental market is buoyed by relative affordability, tight housing supply, and steady population retention. With home prices rising faster than rents, there’s room for rent growth to follow,” the report stated. The city also has a stable employment base, and new rental construction is limited.
The optimism about Syracuse is primarily based on the planned construction of a massive chip plant by Micron Technology in Clay, a city just 14 miles away. Micron will invest $100 billion over 20 years to build a megafab, which is expected to create 9,000 new jobs in the area, thereby boosting the local economy. Construction, which has been delayed by several factors, is expected to commence in November 2025.
One concern about Micron’s project was President Trump’s effort to repeal the CHIPS Act. The Act, passed on a bipartisan basis under President Biden, provides grants, loans and a 25% investment tax credit for qualifying projects. On June 12, however, Micron and the Trump administration jointly announced that all the company’s U.S. investments would be eligible for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit. It has also secured support for $6.4 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS Act to go ahead with the construction of the fabs in New York and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Onondaga County, home to Syracuse and Clay, has purchased some 1,500 acres of land near the fab to accommodate semiconductor supply companies, which could create an additional 40,000 jobs, Micron said.
“Syracuse’s modest housing stock and relatively low rental base create runway for further appreciation, particularly as employment and housing demand ramp up,” Chandan said.
Twenty-two other metros could not meet the differential between their annual home price growth and rent growth criterion, but did show rising rents and a positive home price forecast. Among these, three stood out. In Knoxville, home price growth of 2.6% is projected through May 2026, which is notable because only a quarter of the top metros are expected to see any price gain.
Providence exhibited strong local rent growth between April and May. Philadelphia was the largest metro to see both rising rents and a positive home price forecast, even though both gains were modest.
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