As the weather warms and leasing season heats up, multifamily rents in the United States typically follow suit, rising steadily with increased demand. Yet, this year’s rental market is telling a different story—one marked by surprising stagnation and shifting dynamics that defy seasonal expectations.
The latest analysis to reach this conclusion is Apartment List’s June 2025 National Rent Report, which reports that the national median rent increased by just 0.2% in June, reaching $1,401. This marks the fifth consecutive month of modest increases, but the pace of growth is notably slower than usual for this time of year. Despite these incremental gains, rents are still down 0.7% compared to a year ago and the national median remains $44 below its August 2022 peak—a 3.1% decline. The report highlights that while rents have increased in recent months, the overall trend since 2022 has been constant volatility, with rents fluctuating up and down but never quite reaching their previous highs.
The underlying cause of this market softness is a historic surge in multifamily construction. In 2024 alone, more than 600,000 new units were completed, representing a 65% increase over 2022 and the largest annual supply since 1986, according to Apartment List. This influx of new inventory has driven the national vacancy rate to a record 7%, the highest since the index began tracking in 2017. With more vacant units on the market, landlords face intensified competition, limiting their ability to raise rents. The average time it takes to lease a vacant unit—known as the “list-to-lease” time—has also shortened from its January peak of 37 days to 27 days in June, but units are still sitting on the market longer than they did during the tightest periods of 2022.
The impact of these trends varies widely by region. While 69 of the 100 largest metro areas saw rents rise in May, year-over-year declines persist in markets that experienced the fastest growth in inventory. Austin, for example, experienced a 6.3% decline in median rent over the past year, while Denver and Phoenix saw decreases of 4.8% and 3.1%, respectively. In contrast, coastal and Midwest cities such as San Francisco, Chicago, and Providence have registered gains, underscoring the fragmented nature of the current rental landscape.
Apartment List analysts note that the market is now past the peak of the construction wave, and while the flow of new units is slowing, it remains historically robust. As the market gradually absorbs this surplus, vacancy rates are expected to tighten, potentially restoring landlords’ pricing power in the long term. For now, however, the rental sector remains in a delicate balance, with property owners navigating a patchwork of local conditions and persistent economic uncertainty.
The coming months will test whether the market’s modest rent growth can gain traction or if continued high vacancies and cautious consumer sentiment will keep prices in check. For renters and landlords alike, the summer of 2025 is shaping up to be anything but predictable.
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