Securitized and agency commercial real estate lending are on track for a stronger year in 2025, with notable growth projected across several debt products, according to a recent analysis by CRED iQ.
Following a muted 2024, CMBS conduit issuance—which totaled $32.9 billion last year—is expected to finish 2025 at $35 billion, representing a modest 6.4% increase. CRE CLOs, by contrast, are poised for dramatic growth. Issuance rose from $8.7 billion in 2024 to $17.3 billion in the first half of 2025, with CRED iQ projecting the full-year volume to reach $32.5 billion. This would mark a staggering 274% jump from last year.
Single-borrower large-loan securitizations are seeing a steady rebound as well. Volumes rose from $70.5 billion in 2024 to a projected $90 billion for 2025, a gain of about 27.7%. Agency lending is also gaining momentum. Freddie Mac posted $56.2 billion in 2024 loan volume; for 2025, the projected figure is $65 billion, or an increase of 19.2%. Fannie Mae lending followed a similar pattern, rising from $55 billion last year to an expected $65 billion, up 18.2%.
Interest rates on these loans have varied in the first half of 2025. According to CRED iQ, CMBS conduit loans were originated at an average rate of 6.63%. CRE CLOs came in higher, at 7.62%, and SBLLs averaged 8.30%. Agency loans were significantly lower, with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae averaging 5.71% and 5.74%, respectively.
Several factors are supporting this rebound. Analysts at MSCI, in their second-quarter report, noted continued market stabilization and signs that the sector is moving beyond the disruptions brought about by the pandemic.
Blackstone President and Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Gray highlighted in a recent earnings call that new multifamily and institutional construction is finally slowing, helping to rebalance supply and demand. He cited “early green shoots” of recovery, as transaction activity picks up in select multifamily and logistics assets and the Federal Reserve begins to trim interest rates.
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