As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the Sun Belt’s long-running dominance in commercial real estate may be showing signs of reversal. According to Markerr, an analysis of July 2025 multifamily rent trends reveals that negative rent growth has become concentrated in metropolitan areas across the Sun Belt, a stark contrast to the boom years that defined much of the previous decade.
The nationwide gap between the best- and worst-performing regions in multifamily rents now stands at 960 basis points, ranging from 4.6% growth to a decline of 5.0%. Markets leading the country include Springfield, MO (4.6%), Lancaster, PA (4.5%), Rochester, NY (4.3%), Portland, ME (4.2%), and Syracuse, NY (4.1%), with six of the top 10 performers located in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, or Midwest.
By contrast, the 10 lowest-performing metropolitan areas are primarily in the Sun Belt and Rocky Mountain regions. Austin, TX recorded the steepest drop with rents falling 5.0%, followed closely by Cape Coral, FL (-4.4%), Denver, CO (-4.2%), Sarasota, FL (-3.3%), and Phoenix, AZ (-3.2%). Other markets notching declines include Pensacola, FL; Colorado Springs, CO; Huntsville, AL; Myrtle Beach, SC; and Tucson, AZ.
Nationally, year-over-year rent growth in July edged up by 70 basis points, reaching an average rent of $2,075, while month-over-month growth held flat. Quarterly year-over-year rent changes have displayed a cyclicality since early 2019, although in 2025 the fluctuations have been modest, hovering near 1%.
Projections for five-year compound annual rent growth rates further illustrate a growing geographic divide. The strongest gains are forecasted for markets such as Syracuse, NY (5.5%), Augusta, GA (5.3%), Youngstown, OH (4.9%), Albany, NY (4.9%), and Scranton, PA (4.9%). Meanwhile, the outlook is more subdued in Denver (2.7%), San Diego (2.6%), New Orleans (2.6%), several cities in Florida including Lakeland, Phoenix, Sarasota, and Cape Coral (all between 2.4% and 2.6%), as well as Salt Lake City (2.3%), Seattle (2.3%), and Austin, TX (1.9%).
This regional polarization is even more pronounced in single-family rental markets. According to Markerr, the highest year-over-year growth is observed in places such as Chicago, IL (2.2%), Madison, WI (2.2%), Providence, RI (2.1%), Youngstown, PA (2.1%), and Albany, NY (2.1%). By comparison, the largest declines are concentrated in Florida and Texas, with Cape Coral, FL at the bottom (-4.5%), followed by Sarasota, FL (-2.5%), Austin, TX (-2.3%), San Antonio, TX (-2.2%), and Lakeland, FL (-2.0%).
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