The state of the U.S. housing market at the end of the first six months of 2025 can be described as confused, based on new data from the National Association of Home Builders. The mixed signals it is sending could further dampen residential investment and slow the broader economy this year, the trade association cautioned.
The challenge is weak single-family permit issuance alongside more resilient multifamily permitting. The total number of single-family permits issued in 1H 2025 slumped 5.6% from 514,728 in 1H 2024 to 485,935 nationwide as affordability challenges and high mortgage rates disrupted the market. In contrast, the number of multifamily permits issued rose 2.9% from 237,935 in 1H 2024 to 244,812 in 1H 2025. While this could represent a potentially stabilizing trend, NAHB warned that it remains volatile.
For example, the Midwest (up 1.8%) was the only region to see a higher number of single-family permits issued. Meanwhile, three out of the four regions – the Midwest (up 22.4%), West (up 8%) and South (7.1%) – saw multifamily issuance increase. The exception was the Northeast, where multifamily plummeted 30% following a 40% drop in permits to 14,669 in the New York-New Jersey metro area.
Only 15 states posted an increase in single-family permits during the year ended June 2025. The steepest decline was in the District of Columbia. Even in the 10 states issuing the most single-family permits, the numbers were down year-over-year, including Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
The predominantly downward trend in permit activity was on display in the largest single-family housing markets in the U.S. Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX, maintained its lead as the largest market, issuing 25,721 permits year to date (YTD), an 8% decline from the prior year. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX followed with 22,599 permits, experiencing a sharper 10% year-over-year decrease. Other notable Sunbelt markets like Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA issued 13,935 and 11,833 single-family permits, respectively, each with double-digit YoY declines of 13% and 14%.
However, a few markets offered some bright spots against the general softness: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL was a standout with 8,600 permits—up 13% from last year—while Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA registered a 5% gain with 6,258 permits. Still, other high-growth metros like Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, and Tampa posted moderate to notable falls in permit issuance compared to June 2024, highlighting ongoing affordability pressures and persistent headwinds in the single-family sector.
In contrast. 29 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, led by Iowa (+165.5%) with a sharp rise from 1,178 to 3,128; Alabama had the largest decline of 49.6% from 1,788 to 901. States with the highest increases included Florida, Texas and California.
Southern and sunbelt metros with notable increases in multifamily permits included Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX issued 13,663 multifamily permits—a 12% increase—while Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX ramped up sharply with a 72% increase and 9,066 permits. Orlando, Miami and Columbus, OH all recorded exceptional jumps, rising 63%, 24% and 50% respectively. Even as Phoenix and Los Angeles recorded modest declines, several of the top 10 multifamily markets demonstrated resilience or strong gains, reflecting a shift in residential construction focus and suggesting ongoing demand for multifamily housing, particularly in markets benefiting from migration and economic growth.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.